The ruling Bangladesh Awami League Government of Bangladesh held the 12th general election of the country on 7th January 2024, ignoring the boycott of the opposition parties including the largest political party of the country Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies. The election was marked as the lowest voter turnout election in the history of the country. The election remained questionable to both the local and international community. “The United States remains concerned by the arrests of thousands of political opposition members and by reports of irregularities on elections day,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson.

Before the election, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies demanded the resignation of the current government and the handing over of the power to a caretaker government (a non-partisan government to manage the general election and the transition from one elected government to the next) which Bangladesh used from 1991 to ensure the free and fair election. However, the ruling party Bangladesh Awami League use the judiciary system to make the caretaker government system ‘unconstitutional’. The government lost the confidence of the opposition parties. Moreover, the opposition parties had doubts about the credibility of the election commission to hold a free and fair election from its activities of local elections and by-elections. As election time was looming, opposition parties were campaigning for free and fair elections. The ruling Bangladesh Awami League Government used the law enforcement agency of the country to crack down on the opposition party leaders and activists. According to Human Rights Watch, almost 10,000 opposition activists have been arrested since a planned rally by the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) on October 28. At least 16 people have been killed during ongoing violence, including 2 police officers. Over 5,500 people have been injured. “The government is claiming to commit to free and fair elections with diplomatic partners while the state authorities are simultaneously filling prisons with the ruling Bangladesh Awami League’s political opponents,” said Julia Bleckner, senior Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch. All these make the opposition parties a complete boycott of the election under the ruling Bangladesh Awami League Government. The US government also raised concerns about the situation in Bangladesh. “Any action that undermines the democratic elections process – including violence, preventing people from exercising their right to peaceful assembly, and internet access – calls into question the ability to conduct free and fair elections,” said US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas on October 31. The United States has said it will “impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshi individuals responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.” The US could also consider additional sanctions against those with command responsibility for the abuses being carried out now. On 4 August 2023, the United Nations denounced pre-election violence in Bangladesh, calling for police “to refrain from excessive use of force amid recurring violence and mass arrests ahead of general elections”. This is a human rights issue concerning violence erupting at opposition rallies in 2023, and the harsh response by police using rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannons. A UN spokesman said: “Police, alongside men in plain clothing, have been seen using hammers, sticks, bats and iron rods, among other objects, to beat protesters”. He added that hundreds of people who oppose the government have been arrested before and during the rallies. UN concerns have arisen after Sheikh Hasina rejected demands by the BNP and its allies for the government to step down and allow the January election to be held under a neutral caretaker government. The UN has stressed that Hasina’s government “must abide by their human rights obligations and allow people to exercise their rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of opinion and expression”.  

The 2024 general election was marked as the lowest turnout election in the history of the country. According to the opposition party, BNP people of the country accepted their call to boycott the election and Bangladesh Awami League has no democratic and moral right to form the new government. They stick to their demand for free and fair elections under a neutral caretaker government. 

Here are five takeaways from the election.

1. From a democracy to a one-party state – The transformation of Bangladesh

The election results were a foregone conclusion, as no opposition parties were contesting. However, the results revealed a deeper entrenchment of the Bangladesh Awami League. Of the three hundred directly elected seats in parliament, the Bangladesh Awami League alone secured 223, while “independents,” all of whom belong to the Bangladesh Awami League, won sixty-two. This brings the total directly elected members of parliament loyal to the ruling party to 285—95 per cent of the elected parliamentary seats. The Bangladesh Awami League-aligned Jatiya Party (JP) won eleven seats, and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal and Bangladesh Workers Party had one seat each. Kalyan Party, which left the opposition movement immediately ahead of the election and was supported by the Bangladesh Awami League and state apparatuses, has one seat. Only four candidates have been elected as independents who have no affiliation with any political parties. As such, nothing that could be described as an opposition exists in the parliament.

These facts alone point to one-party control over the state; however, the defining characteristic of the composition is that this provides all power to Sheikh Hasina. The party’s general secretary has even said that she will decide who will act as the opposition party in the parliament. In the previous two parliaments, JP was designated as the official parliamentary opposition. Now that the JP has fallen from the grace of the prime minister, it is still being speculated who Hasina will favour. This is a marker of a personalistic autocratic system. 

2. Even the turnout figures can no longer be trusted

Ahead of the election, the only uncertainty was voter turnout. With no formidable opposition in the race and calls from the opposition to boycott the election, it appeared that the most daunting challenge to the ruling party was to attract voters to the polling booths. As the voting began, it became apparent that turnout would be low. Yet, at the end of the day, the Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal claimed that turnout was 40 percent. The announcement was made in a bizarre manner. Awal, in a press briefing after the polling was closed, initially said that the turnout was 28 per cent, but changed immediately to the higher figure at the prodding of his colleague. 

The 40 per cent figure, described as “ridiculous” by experts, not only belied the facts as reported in the media throughout the day but also contradicted the Election Commission’s earlier accounts. Four hours after the polls opened, the Election Commission reported an 18.50 per cent turnout, and an hour before the polls were to close it was reported at 26.37 per cent. Thus, according to this statement, almost 14 per cent of votes were cast in the last hour. Interestingly, the Election Commission dashboard continued to have data that showed the turnout close to 28 per cent. The earlier reported numbers as well as 28 percent were also seen as inflated. 

3. People resoundingly rejected the exercise

The electorate voted with their feet: By and large, they decided not to show up at the polling booth risking future persecution. Even if the official turnout statistic is taken at face value, 72 percent of voters stayed home. Three factors have made Bangladeshis shun the stage-managed show. First, the government’s efforts to make the race appear competitive by propping up dummy candidates exposed the farcical nature of the election. Second, the ongoing economic crisis has made them less interested in voting, which will have no bearing on the future course of the ruling party’s economic policies. Between 1991 and 2008, when Bangladesh held freely contested elections, voters were eager to oust incumbents and elevate the opposition to power. Third, the electorate seemed to heed the oppositions’ call to boycott the elections, an indication of high anti-incumbency sentiment and the popularity of the opposition parties.

4. The United States’ half-hearted actions fell short

Since the beginning of 2022, the United States insisted that Bangladesh hold a free, fair, and inclusive election, and it repeatedly warned that an election which does not meet these criteria won’t be acceptable. High-ranking US officials made several visits to Dhaka, and they met with Bangladeshi officials, including Hasina, in Washington and New York to try to sway her. Hasina portrayed this pressure as an attempt to depose her from power. 

In addition, the United States adopted a policy of allowing it to withhold visas from Bangladeshi officials who undermine democracy and called for a dialogue between two major parties to reach a solution. This promotion of democracy abroad was viewed as an integral part of the Biden administration’s foreign policy, with democracy and human rights as its cornerstones. There was widespread speculation that the United States would take punitive measures, including targeted sanctions, to push the Bangladeshi government toward a compromise. But these talks and postures were not backed with any concrete actions. 

As well, the United States’ close relationship with India seems to have made Washington’s options limited, and India’s unqualified support for the Hasina government prevailed. After the election, the US State Department and the British Foreign Office described the poll as “not free and fair,” but this pronouncement fell far short of the actions that prior US statements seemed to indicate it would take. 

5. The opposition is vindicated—but faces a tough road ahead

The opposition’s decision not to join the election, insisting that a fair election under the incumbent is not possible, has been vindicated, once again. The low turnout is one indication that the opposition’s boycott reflects popular sentiment. The opposition, especially the BNP, demonstrated that despite persecution and threats, it has remained intact. Its absence in the electoral process has exposed the government’s machinations. The BNP also showed that it can remain nonviolent despite provocations. But the movement also displayed the failure of the opposition to create a common platform to press for its demands and mobilize the people on the streets. Hasina’s characterization of the BNP during her election campaign as a “terrorist organization” does not bode well for its future. This is a message not only for the BNP, but to all the opposition parties and the critics of the ruling party.